Uncorking Opportunities: A Look at Wine Investment Trends in September 2023.
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As of our last update in August 2023, the global economy was showing signs of recovery from the profound impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. While certain regions and sectors are still facing challenges, on a macro scale, the world is not in a technical global recession. However, the pace and nature of recovery varies significantly across countries and industries.
A recession is typically defined as a significant decline in economic activity across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It’s visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
2. Key Indicators:
Real Global GDP is forecasted to grow by 2.7 percent in 2023, down from 3.3 percent in 2022. We expect further slowing to 2.4 percent in 2024. Economic growth is moderating under the weight of still high inflation and monetary policy tightening.
Global unemployment is slated to rise slightly in 2023, by around 3 million, to 208 million (corresponding to a global unemployment rate of 5.8 per cent). The moderate size of this projected increase is largely due to tight labour supply in high-income countries.
3. Regional Analysis:
North America: GDP rose 2.4% in Q2 in quarter-on-quarter annualized terms, up from Q1’s 2.0% expansion and outpacing market expectations. A rebound in fixed investment underpinned the reading, partly thanks to the government’s fiscal incentives spurring factory investment.
Europe: Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU in the second quarter of 2023, after +1.1% in both zones in the previous quarter.
Asia: The average GDP growth rate for Emerging Asian countries is expected to increase to 5.3% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2024. ASEAN’s average real GDP growth is forecast to reach 4.6% in 2023 and 4.8% in 2024, weaker than in 2022, but showing resilience, based on the projection framework of the OECD Development Centre
Middle East, Africa: Real GDP growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is forecast to fall to 2.9% in 2023, from 5.3% last year, before improving to 3.5% in 2024, the IMF said in its Regional Economic Outlook report.
4. Sectoral Analysis:
Technology: The tech sector thrives due to increased demand for digital services and e-commerce.
Travel & Hospitality: One of the hardest-hit sectors, Global tourism arrivals will increase by 30% in 2023, following growth of 60% in 2022, but will remain below pre-pandemic levels.
5. Risks & Challenges:
While recovery was underway, several challenges persisted:
New COVID-19 variants: The emergence of new variants could lead to fresh lockdowns.
Inflation: Some economies faced rising inflation rates due to supply chain issues and increased government spending.
Geopolitical tensions: Trade wars and regional conflicts could hamper global growth.
As of September 2023, the world’s economy is not in a technical recession. There are some indicators of recovery in many areas, but the future trajectory remains uncertain due to various challenges. Investors are advised to diversify portfolios, stay updated on global trends, and remain prepared for potential short-term volatility.
Europe’s No 1 Wine Investment Analyst
Compare the Invest Into Wine Index with the London Vintners Exchange Index and the world’s stock markets in the table below.
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Be the best investor you can be by investing in fine wine for your future.
If you are selling wine?
Sell only first growth wines from your portfolio at year end. Other regions tend to be slower at the end of a bad year for the economy.
What are the best investment wines to buy now?
Buy what is cheap in the market at this period of the year. Look for the bargains, below market stock that can set you up for a good start to a profitable year in 2023.
The Figures for September
This month’s valuations showed the Bordeaux market decreasing by -3.64%. Champagne and Rhone Valley wines have decreased by -3.96%.
18.4% of the wines valued showed a positive return, while 48.0% showed a negative return, and 33.6% remained the same.
83.6% of our portfolio is Bordeaux while 13.2% is Champagne and Rhone Valley, with Whisky investments & others make up 3.3%
Overall, there was a -3.65% in the value of all wines this month.
Below are the five, top and bottom movers compared to the previous month. Over 100 wines are valued each month. The wines valued are ALL OUR recommendations from the last fifteen years.
The new prices are reflected in your online portfolio every month.
Please log on to our website SureHoldings.com to view your wine portfolio and email us back if you wish to ask anything about which wines that can help build your wine portfolio.
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This is how your portfolio is managed.
- Wine Research – Source and negotiate new wines.
- Portfolio Analysis – Assess your portfolio for wines that need to be sold and allocate new wines to your portfolio.
- Logistics – Manage the delivery and receipt of wines with new buyers and sellers into the Bonded Warehouse in UK and France.
- Billing – Monitor funds from your wine sales and bill new wines to your portfolio to ensure an efficient cash flow to maximize your invested funds.
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